Mortgage Applications Fall as Rates Held Near Highs
Fri, 01 Aug 2025 19:28:00 GMT
Mortgage application activity fell last week, reversing prior momentum and highlighting continued softness in both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 3.8% decline in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending July 25, 2025. “Mortgage applications fell to their lowest level since May, with both purchase and refinance activity declining over the week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The 30‑year fixed rate was little changed at 6.83%, but high enough to deter refinancing, pushing the refinance index lower for the third straight week. Purchase applications decreased by almost 6 percent, as conventional, FHA, and VA purchase loans declined despite slowing home‑price growth and rising inventory.” The Refinance Index dropped 1% week‑over‑week, though it remains about 30% above last year’s level. The Purchase Index posted a 6% weekly decrease, but still sits roughly 17% higher than the same week in 2024. Purchase applications declined across the board, while refinance activity also softened. The 30‑year fixed rate held steady at 6.83% after a slight drop from the week prior. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.83% (from 6.84%) | Points: 0.60 (down from 0.62) 15yr Fixed: 6.12% (down from 6.14%) | Points: 0.64 (down from 0.69) Jumbo 30yr: 6.74% (down from 6.75%) | Points: 0.51 (down from 0.70) FHA: 6.56% (up from 6.52%) | Points: 0.83 (up from 0.79) 5/1 ARM: 6.22% (up from 6.01%) | Points: 0.51 (up from 0.28)

Pending Home Sales Slip Again, Underscoring Market Stagnation
Fri, 01 Aug 2025 18:07:00 GMT
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has remained rangebound for more than two years, constrained by affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates. This week’s release showed a decline after last month’s modest gain, reflecting persistent market softening. Pending home sales fell by 0.8% in June, following May’s 1.8% rise. The index is now 2.8% lower than a year ago , but remains far below pre‑2022 levels. Zooming out, contract activity remains stuck in a narrow band. The index hasn’t topped 80 since the summer of 2022, indicating a sluggish, rate‑constrained housing market. “The data shows a continuation of small declines in contract signings despite inventory in the market increasing,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The drop in June extends weakness even as more homes come online. Regional Breakdown (Month‑Over‑Month) Northeast: +2.1% Midwest: −0.8% South: −0.7% West: −3.9% Regional YoY Change Northeast: 0.0% (flat) Midwest: −0.9% South: −2.9% West: −7.3% All regions except the Northeast posted declines month-over-month. Year-over-year, only the Northeast remains unchanged. The West saw the steepest annual drop at −7.3%.

Home Prices Still Rising Year-Over-Year, But Momentum Is Fading
Fri, 01 Aug 2025 17:48:00 GMT
Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller released the latest update on home price appreciation this week. Actually, in the current case, it's more like home price depreciation (at least in month over month terms). This is a bit confusing because average prices were higher versus the previous month, but that is virtually always true at this time of year.  Seasonal adjustments are very useful for data like home prices (which have a reliable cadence that follows the typical homebuying seasons).  It's after adjusting for seasonality that we see emerging signs of weakness.  FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) May: −0.2%; April was revised from −0.4% to −0.3% YoY: +2.8% from May 2024 to May 2025 Monthly figures varied regionally: Middle Atlantic showed the steepest fall at −0.8%, while West South Central and New England saw modest gains of +0.3%. All nine census divisions remain positive YoY, ranging from +0.6% to +5.9%. Case‑Shiller National Index (unadjusted) YoY: +2.3% in May, down from +2.7% in April MoM (raw): +0.4% MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.3% This marks the smallest annual national gain since July 2023 and the third consecutive monthly decline in seasonally adjusted data. Seasonally Adjusted Comparison Table: FHFA vs Case‑Shiller (May 2025) Index MoM (SA) YoY FHFA HPI −0.2% +2.8% Case‑Shiller −0.3% +2.3%

Buyers See More Choices, Lower Prices in New Home Market
Thu, 24 Jul 2025 19:54:00 GMT
The latest New Home Sales report (released today) shows a slight uptick in June after last month’s sharp drop. The seasonally‑adjusted annual sales pace rose to 627,000. This represents a modest +0.6% gain from May’s revised 623,000, but remains ‑6.6% below the June 2024 level of 671,000.  For all practical purposes, the pave of sales has been relentlessly sideways and stable for more than 2 years--even if there's been a bit of volatility at times. Regional Breakdown (Sales, June 2025) South: +5.1% MoM (driving national gain) Midwest: +6.3% MoM Northeast: ‑27.6% MoM West: ‑8.4% MoM Market Inventory & Pricing Homes for sale: 511,000 units (+1.2% from May; +8.5% YoY) Months’ supply: 9.8 months (highest since November 2022) Median sales price: $401,800 (‑4.9% MoM; ‑2.9% YoY) Average sales price: $501,000 (‑2.0% MoM; +1.1% YoY) Big Picture Takeaway New home sales rose modestly in June but remain well below last year’s levels, held back by elevated mortgage rates (~7%) and excess inventory. The housing market shows signs of cooling, with the median price slipping—providing some relief for buyers, though mortgage costs continue to constrain demand.

High Prices and Rates Keep Home Sales Near Cycle Lows
Wed, 23 Jul 2025 15:40:00 GMT
Two months ago, existing home sales hit a five-month low. Last month’s report showed a minor rebound. This month’s update, released July 23, shows a return to weakness. Sales declined 2.7% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million. That leaves activity just above the recent low and still 25% below long-term norms. Year-over-year, sales were unchanged nationally. As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart results in an entirely different impression of the home resale market. Sales levels have hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years now. “The record high median home price highlights how American homeowners’ wealth continues to grow—a benefit of homeownership,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “High mortgage rates are causing home sales to remain stuck at cyclical lows.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, June 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 460,000 -8.0% $543,300 +4.2% Midwest 950,000 -4.0% $337,600 +3.4% South 1.81 million -2.2% $374,500 +0.3% West 710,000 +1.4% $636,100 +1.0%

Mortgage Apps Eke Out Small Gain Thanks to Purchase Activity
Wed, 23 Jul 2025 13:01:00 GMT
Mortgage application activity managed a modest increase last week despite slightly higher rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey showed a 0.8% rise in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending July 18, 2025. “Mortgage rates moved higher last week, with the 30-year fixed rate edging up to 6.84 percent, the highest level in four weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications finished the week higher, driven by conventional purchase loans, and continue to run ahead of last year’s pace. After reaching $460,000 in March 2025, the average purchase loan amount has fallen to its lowest level since January, at $426,700.” Refinance applications declined 3% from the previous week but remain 22% higher than the same week last year. The refinance share of total applications dipped to 39.6% from 41.1%. Purchase applications rose 3% on a seasonally adjusted basis and are now 22% higher than last year. The unadjusted purchase index was up 4% week over week. The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.84%, the highest since mid-June, while rate movements across other loan types were mixed. Jumbo and FHA rates held steady, but points shifted in opposite directions. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.84% (+0.07) | Points: 0.62 (unch) 15yr Fixed: 6.14% (+0.10) | Points: 0.69 (+0.06) Jumbo 30yr: 6.75% (unch) | Points: 0.70 (+0.04) FHA: 6.52% (unch) | Points: 0.79 (−0.07) 5/1 ARM: 6.01% (unch) | Points: 0.28 (−0.17)

Rising Rates Hit Mortgage Apps, But Pace Remains Better Than 2024
Fri, 18 Jul 2025 19:05:00 GMT
Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as rates moved higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index fell 10.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 11, reversing much of the prior week’s gain. “Mortgage rates rose last week following higher Treasury yields, which weighed on both purchase and refinance demand,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Refinance activity declined, and purchase applications fell to their lowest level since May.” Refinance applications fell 7% from the previous week but remain roughly 25% higher than the same week one year ago. Purchase applications declined 12% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unadjusted index increased 11% week-over-week and is still about 13% higher than 2024 levels, reflecting a modest improvement in year-over-year comparisons despite recent volatility. The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.82%—up slightly from the prior week—while points held steady or edged lower depending on loan type. Mortgage Rate Summary: Loan Type Rate Change Points Change 30yr Fixed 6.82% +0.03 0.62 0.00 15yr Fixed 6.11% +0.05 0.66 −0.01 Jumbo 30yr 6.81% +0.03 0.39 −0.01 FHA 6.55% +0.02 0.74 −0.02 5/1 ARM 6.01% +0.02 0.58 −0.02

Builder Outlook Ticks Up Despite More Price Cuts and Less Buyer Traffic
Fri, 18 Jul 2025 18:51:00 GMT
Builders are placing their better days in the future according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo's latest Housing Market Index (HMI). Buoyed by longer-run expectations, the headline builder confidence index rose one point to 33, but remained deep in pessimistic territory, marking the 15th consecutive month below the key threshold of 50. Underlying components of the index were mixed: Current sales conditions rose one point to 36 Sales expectations for the next 6 months climbed 3 points to 43  Buyer traffic slipped one point to 20 High mortgage rates, elevated construction costs, and persistent affordability challenges continue to weigh on builder confidence. In response, many builders are offering concessions to attract hesitant buyers. The share of builders reporting price reductions rose to 38% in July, the highest since NAHB began monthly tracking in 2022. The average price cut remained at 5%. Sales incentives remained widespread as well, with 62% of builders reporting some form of incentive—unchanged from June. While the small uptick in sentiment may reflect cautious optimism in certain segments of the market, the overall outlook remains subdued. Builders continue to face significant headwinds, and buyer traffic is still near post-pandemic lows.

Builders Breaking More Ground, But Not on Single Family Homes
Fri, 18 Jul 2025 18:41:00 GMT
The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a mixed bag for June, with a modest gain in overall housing starts driven by a rebound in multifamily construction, while single-family activity continued to decline. Building permits were essentially flat, suggesting a pause in the momentum seen earlier this year. As usual, the market focuses most on building permits and housing starts, with the latter representing the beginning of actual construction activity. Total starts rose 5.2% to an annual pace of 1.321 million, up from a revised 1.256 million in May. The increase was entirely due to a sharp rebound in multifamily starts, which surged from 316k to 414k—more than reversing the previous month’s drop. In contrast, single-family starts fell 4.4% to 883k, marking the lowest level in 11 months. Building permits—a forward-looking indicator—were nearly unchanged, inching up from 1.393 million to 1.397 million. That masked a 3.7% decline in single-family permits, which dropped to 866k, while multifamily permits rose modestly from 444k to 478k. Meanwhile, housing completions fell sharply, down 13.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.314 million. That included a 12.5% decline in single-family completions, which dropped from 1.038 million to 908k.

Big Jump in Mortgage Demand, But Rates Are Already Rising Again
Wed, 09 Jul 2025 13:17:00 GMT
Mortgage application activity bounced higher last week following a drop in rates to the lowest levels in 3 months. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey showed a 9.4% increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending July 4, 2025. The results included an adjustment for the July 4th holiday. “Mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.77 percent, its lowest level in three months,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “After adjusting for the July 4th holiday, purchase applications increased to the highest level of activity since February 2023 and remained above year-ago levels. Homebuyer demand is being fueled by increasing housing inventory and moderating home-price growth.” Refinance applications were up 9% from the previous week and are now 56% higher than the same week last year, with VA refinances jumping 32%. Purchase applications rose 9% on a seasonally adjusted basis and are now 25% higher than last year. The average loan size for purchase apps dropped to $432,600, the lowest since January. The average 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.77% while most point levels shifted only modestly. Jumbo rates posted a larger drop, but points increased more noticeably. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.77% (−0.02) | Points: 0.62 (unch) 15yr Fixed: 6.04% (−0.02) | Points: 0.63 (−0.04) Jumbo 30yr: 6.69% (−0.09) | Points: 0.65 (+0.25) FHA: 6.51% (−0.02) | Points: 0.80 (+0.04) 5/1 ARM: 6.01% (+0.02) | Points: 0.73 (+0.13)